With the RNC underway and the DNC waiting on deck, you might be thinking “less than four months left of election coverage. Huzzah!”1
One bubble bursting question remains for New Yorkers: will anyone present a challenge to Mayor Eric Adams?
There is ambition to have a competitive primary. If ambition translates into donors, 2xParked will be your source for data insights on the 2025 NYC mayoral election. (Additionally, you can follow on Instagram or X/Twitter for more 2xParked content.)
MayorModel 2.0
Years after introducing the MayorModel, I have made improvements to make sure we can better follow a contested 2025 election.
Better Model! The biggest improvement is another year of data. This is especially important when considering RCV which was new in 2021. Additionally, more data points and more knowledge allowed me to tidy up prior data assumptions, resulting in a stronger model.
More Updates! I have cleaned up my code. This means more and quicker updates. Remember, Instagram and Twitter/X (@2xParked for both) now exist so your inbox will not be completely filled with every news. Share this newsletter for more in depth commentary.
More Insights! I plan to dig deeper into the data, give cleaner looks at the landscape, and keep you ahead of the game.
MayorModel 2.0 Estimated Vote Totals after 1st Round of RCV Prior to Election
Five Big Questions Heading into 2025
2021 was not my first contested primary, but it was the first one with the MayorModel. Here are few of my biggest questions heading into 2025:
Who will get endorsed by the Times? In 2021, Kathryn Garcia had a strong hold in the middle of the candidate table when the NY Times Editorial Board was the NOS to her campaign. A Times endorsement is not a cheat code, but it certainly was a factor in Garcia winning Manhattan.
Who will be the “progressive” candidate? The recent NYC progressive campaign philosophy has been to emphasize policy over candidacy, but in highly contested larger elections, philosophy has had a 30-40% cap on New York’s biggest stages. That does not mean they can’t break through; Bill de Blasio ran a masterful campaign in 2013. It might mean they quickly converge on a singular candidate.
What lessons were learned on Ranked Choice Voting? RCV helped Kathryn Garcia nearly close a 100k first round voting gap, but when Maya Wiley’s votes were released heading into the final round, 75k votes went to neither Adams nor Garcia. Considering Garcia lost by only 7k votes and she won 3/4 of Wiley’s distributed votes, there might have been missed opportunity had she diverted some of those 75k. How will candidates handle campaigning and cross-endorsements this time around — and will voters notice?
How will candidates get out on the streets? Remember in 2021, we were still very much restricted by Covid. Andrew Yang was the first, and at some points the one only, candidate to hit the street, giving him an early edge in polling. Most of the candidates campaigned local, most often from their — sometimes very nice — apartments. In 2013, you could not walk more than 10 blocks without running into a candidate. Will 2025 bring back the on-the-streets campaign traffic?
What should we consider with polling? Monitor the “undecided” vote. We might have an interest in the election, but most New Yorkers need a break from politics. We have seen the undecided vote for the primary does not fall under 10% until just a few weeks prior to the election. The decline in undecided vote can be correlated with large and concentrated increases in a singular candidate’s polling (see de Blasio in 2013).
What kind of challenge will the GOP Present? For more on this, check out my prior post.
As a reminder, after the mayor election in 2025, we have midterms. Huzzah!
Assuming the losers of the November election concede. This is not a safe assumption.