When this newsletter began, my “Mayor Model,” an ML-backed model to analyze a candidate’s chance of winning, was focused on the democratic mayoral primary. My hot take — I might have been the only one to call it — was that the primary winner was destined to be mayor.
Former Democratic presidential hopeful Michael Bloomberg was the last “Republican” to be mayor of NYC, but it was not that long ago when Rudy Guiliani (1997) was reelected for a second term (potentially due to his strong stance against false advertising). Looking at the voter registration in 1997 with today’s hyper-partisan lens, it seems impossible that Guiliani could have won. Although only 14% of the city registered as Republican then, there are even less GOP registered in the city today.
If we use the 2021 mayoral election as a proxy, which was a pretty good showing for Republican voters, the GOP would need to win over at least 30% of the Democratic vote for a chance. Even in 2022, an election —considered by some as a “toss up” — where Kathy Hochul won governor with only 53% of the vote, later polls indicated only12% of Democrats were interested in GOP candidate Lee Zeldin.
Sporting a candidate means there is a possibility, and 2xParked is going to investigate why City Republicans should feel a little hopeful and City Democrats should not be short-sighted.
Universal Concerns Plays into Perceived Strengths
According to recent polling, the top three concerns of New Yorkers are crime, immigration, and high costs (i.e. the economy). The order differs for Democrats and Republicans, but the top is the same for both.
According to recent polling, the top three concerns which voters think Republicans are better at tackling are crime, immigration, and the economy.
Divisive Issues are Less of an Issue
The three most divisive issues in national polling which Democrats support are climate change, healthcare, and abortion. Most of the conversation regarding these issues are either national battles, disputes in other states or municipalities, or non-prioritized issues for New Yorkers on aggregate.
A GOP candidate should either avoid those issues completely or — dare I say— agree with Democrats for any chance of not losing potential Democrat votes.
Democrats Divided
There are 51 Democratic members of the City Council, of which about 1/3 are part of the “Progressive Caucus.” This 1/3 is in line with what we have seen in recent progressive populations divides among New York voting results, from Clinton v. Saunders to Cuomo v. Nixon.
The threat of a different candidate on the Working Family line could do as much, or more, harm to Democrat chances as a non-vote. Although this has not happened yet, NYC has had candidates win when only supported by the WFP.
Likability is Winnability
We all like to think we vote on principles and policies, but research has shown that character influences us heavily. The two most important features to win over Democratic voters are (1) warmth and (2) competence.
Warmth is about finding a friendly and moral candidate (insert political joke here). Competence for Democratic voters can easily be tied back to having a a good degree. Higher educated candidates are especially important for voters with higher educational backgrounds. In New York County, about 3 in 5 residents have a bachelor’s degree.
In the pool of 552K registered Republican voters in NYC, probability says there has to be one with a good degree and warm personality.
The X-Factors
If a Republican has any chance of winning New York City, the candidate will have to win over a lot of Democrats.
In a city where Dems outnumber GOP 7-to1, winning 100% of the base is not enough for Republicans. It is likely more advantageous to pander to a slice of Democrats at the cost of losing a portion of the base. This of course means hoping for an uncontested primary. Winning the primary means winning the base, which likely means not winning Democrats.
Of course, all of this could be null-and-void come this November. A Trump win – and waking up to the daily social media nightmare for a year prior to the mayoral election -- likely creates more Democratic unity and a sure victory in 2025.