I want to thank all of you as we conclude this long 2020. On a positive note, I am thankful that it gave me an opportunity (and time) to create this newsletter and interact with all of you. In just two months, I have received a lot of great feedback, and I look forward to sharing more NYC data stories in 2021.
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As I reflect on the data which made New York City this past year, the “number” which stands out to me is 2020. “2020” has graduated from number status to adjective. No longer is it just a year. Rather, it aptly describes the disruption and unrest that impacted all aspects of our lives. Hopefully “2021” will have a positive impact when it also graduates to adjective.
The 10 Defining Numbers of 2020
4.8
Weather: It felt like a long time since we had snow, and it was. We only accumulated 4.8 inches of snow during the 2019-2020 winter, which is less than we had in the storm two weeks ago.
300k
Population: Between March and October, 300 thousand people changed their address outside of NYC according to the US Post Office. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next year as the economy (hopefully) begins to recover. Will people want to pay high taxes or move back into tiny apartments?
34
Sports: When the Wilpon family sold the Mets to Steve Cohen for $2.4B, it ended 34 years of at least 50% ownership. I can’t predict how this will play out, but given the recent lack of success of the Mets, it is nice to have a bit of optimism.
39%
Crime: As of 12/20/2020, there were 437 murders in New York City, up 39% from 2019. This also includes a 98% increase in shooting incidents. People will attribute this increase to different reasons depending on their narrative, but there is likely no one reason it is up. Regardless, it is a worrisome number.
4
Transit: The NYC subway was no longer 24-hours in 2020. It closed 4 hours every day (1-5am) due to cleaning protocols. Hopefully next year this number will be back to 0.
12%
Economy: November’s NYC unemployment rate is a big improvement (-0.9%) from October, but still too high to sustain economic growth in the city.
1 Billion
Social Justice: Some wanted more. Some wanted less. Pleasing really no one, this represents the amount of money taken away from the NYPD budget. Pragmatically, this might have done little this year. Symbolically, it will impact NYC politics going forward.
3,047,263
Election: The number of votes in the November presidential election increased dramatically from 2016.
25k
Public Health: You can debate the number of positive Covid19 cases, but it is difficult to argue the devastating magnitude of the number of deaths in the city.
7
Community: Nothing showed the strength of the NYC community more than the 7:00pm clapping to cheer the essential and frontline workers.
2xParked 2020
On election day + 1 2020, 2xParked introduced itself to the world. Catch up on some of the past editions below:
1.1 First Parking Ticket: 2xParked introduced itself with an explanation of the MayorModel, a machine learning model which uses publicly available data to help understand where the 2021 mayoral race stands.
1.2 Seinfeld Edition: After binging Seinfeld, 2xParked quantified some of the absurd moments of this iconic NYC show.
1.3 The Economics of the Subway Series: Baseball is a big business in NYC, and 2xParked analyzed how you can use baseball to make some wise financial investments.
1.4 Planes, Trains, and Automobiles: Check out our first data-based subway line rankings. Where does your train stack up?
1.5 Upstate vs Downstate: If New York State had an electoral college system, would Andrew Cuomo still be governor?
1.6 Pizza Party: 2xParked analyzed all the pizza rankings to come up with the Ultimate NYC Pizza Rankings. Spoiler alert: they are all amazing.
1.7 Promotion From Within: Politicians have to start somewhere. Why not in City Council?
1.8 Jingle Bell Rock: 2xParked analyzed how our NYC holiday spirit compare to the past.
MayorModel
There have been a few early mayor polls which were conducted. They are not yet inputs in the model, but they do provide two major insights.
1) Names/Brands Matter: What will it be like to campaign without actually going out to campaign? Even in the presidential races, the candidates started campaigning in person. There will not be a lot of chances to meet the candidates beyond a few online forums and commercials. This favors the names we know: Yang, Rose, Adams, and Stringer.
2) Bottom of Mind: After the ugly 2020 election and the increasing presence of Covid19, the mayor race is likely not top-of-mind for the average New Yorker. In a recent poll, 40% of survey participants said they would choose “someone else / not sure” as their candidate. That is an huge number… like REALLY big. In 2013, a NYT/Siena poll conducted a month before the election had 30% undecided, which is also very high. This could mean that people really do support the candidates not listed on the survey. This more likely means people really are unsure and will not decide until polling time.
There are still 6 months left before we vote! A lot can happen.
"2021" was drawn by Ink&thyme, drawing life's unforgettable moments. For unique art drawn just for you, check them out on Facebook and on Instagram.
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