Welcome to 2xParked (“Double Parked”)! This is the first of my free weekly series that will translate your New York City life and culture into data.
What makes New Yorkers great is that we try to understand everything about our city. We do not just have opinions, but we have strong opinions on all questions relating to our lives. Who should we elect? How do we fix the rat problem? Who should the Mets acquire?
This is where 2xParked comes in. 2xParked will be your guide to using data to answer some of the great debates, bring context to your city, and force you to think about your surroundings like a data analyst. We will use data to size up the 2021 mayoral race, study the economics of Seinfeld, and rank our subway trains.
I was hesitant at first about using the word “data” in my initial paragraph because for many, it is a scary word, and I do not want to scare you. “Data” does not mean “math”. A good analyst is a critical thinker, not a mathematical thinker.
In fact, our heads are more powerful data models than any spreadsheets or computer programs, and New Yorkers have some of the best heads in the world. Every action we take or opinion we make is the quick run of our brains, which take all the data from past experiences and intuition to produce an outcome of how to think or act. How did you decide to vote? How did you decide where to eat dinner last Friday? How did you decide to dress yourself today for your early morning Zoom call? I can guarantee these decisions were not completely random and were based on a lifetime of accrued data.
2xParked will use data to enhance our mind-processing models, and I want you (and I expect you) to be part of the process. To get the most out of 2xParked:
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As The Who once sang “one and one don’t make two. One and one make one.” That is my kind of math. You and 2xParked are now one. I am excited! I hope you are as well.
MayorModel
It is no coincidence that you are receiving this newsletter Election Day + 1. Your votes for 2020 are (hopefully) in, but the 2021 election is just getting started. For us New York City folk, that means a new mayor as we enter the 8th and final year of the de Blasio administration. This mayoral election is looking similar to the Wacky Race of 2013, so expect lead changes and big media scoops on a week-to-week basis.
And with that...2xParked introduces you to its MayorModel!
What is the MayorModel? The MayorModel is a machine learning based statistical model which converts publicly available data, representing the candidate’s campaign, into a winning percentage.
What isn’t the MayorModel? Pundits predict winners. Statistical models predict likelihood. Although this might be a more vanilla take than what you want, it is the inherent nature of the model. I want to level your expectations. A statistician who runs a victory lap is often misleading you. The “victories” are often in the insights of the model, not the results.
Right now, the model is early and the data is fresh. Contribution and expenditure dollars have not been updated since July, so it is mostly dependent on social media and public relations data right now. I expect there to be quite a bit of movement over the next few months as we add more data (such as polling and endorsements), with it stabilizing sometime in early spring. To catch you up in a minute:
More than a dozen candidates have declared.
One favorite, City Council Speaker Corey Johnson, has withdrawn his name from consideration.
At least two other potential favorites, former Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, have not officially announced their candidacy.
Early on in the crowded field, Scott Stringer, who has already won city-wide elections and accrued quite of bit of money, and Maya Wiley, who was written up in the NY Times, are the leaders out the gate. The model says so much more: it is going to be wild. Stand by.
"Mayoral Race" was drawn by Ink&thyme, drawing life's unforgettable moments. For unique art drawn just for you, check them out on Facebook and on Instagram.
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Comments? Suggestions? Questions? Email me at 2xParked@gmail.com.