“I'm the best there is at what I do, but what I do best isn't very nice” ~ Wolverine (2009)
Last week, I wrote Brad Lander was the X-factor in this election. This week, he cemented that status.
The NY Times could not help itself by giving him an unofficial endorsement. In a more surprising move, the NY Times also wrote “we do not believe that Mr. Mamdani deserves a spot on New Yorkers’ ballots.” Between the NYT unofficial endorsement, the anti-endorsement of his progressive rival, Lander’s viral video of being arrested by ICE, and 700ish thousand more votes to be had, this might be the opening Brad Lander needs to cause chaos.
Here are the latest updates from the MayorModel, which have not accounted for these new Lander developments:
Last week I also provided tips on what data to consider during early voting. Here are updates on what I have seen in regard to my stated tenets.
Consider media or university sponsored polls.
Marist University released a poll this week with Cuomo finishing up 55-45 against Mamdani. This is what major news organizations had to say when you google search this poll:
Headline writers see what they want to see. This is why 2xParked exists.
The gap has indeed closed since the prior Marist Poll in May, but in that poll, the undecided rate was a whopping 17% and full of unknown. It is interesting in the cross-tabs of this recent poll that the Bronx, Manhattan, Staten Island, and Queens overwhelmingly support Cuomo while Brooklyn overwhelmingly supports Mamdani. This is similar to what we saw in 2021 with Maya Wiley vs Garcia/Adams. Unlike Mamdani, Wiley had the disadvantage of not receiving the progressive campaign support —i.e. AOC endorsement — until too late. With this advantage, Mamdani either needs an exceptional turnout from Bushwick/Park Slope or over-performance in the other boroughs to close ground.
I was curious what polling a week prior to election day meant in terms of historical context. I looked at the university/media polls in prior primaries issued roughly a week before the election and how they compared to actual results.
I was hoping to see an obvious pattern, but nothing stands out. There is almost statistically no correlation between polls and poll misses. What is obvious is that the polling error exceeds the stated error of the polls. This Marist poll of +/-4.3% might be considerably wider in reality.
Consider the undecided vote in the polls.
The undecided is still 11% in this Marist poll, which is weirdly high. In the past, it was 6% at this point. This will further inflate variance and add unpredictability when comparing polls to actuals next Tuesday. It is a huge reason why Mamdani’s chances are as high as they are in the MayorModel.
Consider betting markets.
On the evening I wrote to ignore candidate sponsored polls, Cuomo’s betting market chances dropped below 60%. Now it is back up to 80%. Unless something drastically pops up in the news, it will remain 75-85%, which I think is a fair number (see my MayorModel). As I wrote, that 60% was due to untrustworthy data sources being used to trade on the candidate’s stock and the market would predictably reset.
Ignore early voting totals.
Early voting totals have doubled in 2025 compared to 2021. This is fact. This is all we know as fact. We do not know the why. I present a few of my perfectly plausible hypotheses which support or oppose your favored candidate depending on your interpretation:
Early voting is becoming a more established part of our NYC voting culture. We forget that it has only been around a few years.
With Juneteenth this Thursday — a day off of work for many in the City— many folks are taking a long weekend and using early voting as an opportunity for convenience.
There is more excitement in the overall race — perhaps due to the candidates or it not being 2021 in the shadow of Covid — meaning more people are excited to vote early. This may or may not mean more people are voting overall.
There is more excitement for an individual candidate. This may or may not mean more people are voting overall.
There is more messaging from candidates to vote early.
Key takeaways from all of this
Vote
Nothing is close to being decided
Follow 2xParked for more updates