“It's time to play the music, it's time to light the lights” - Miss Piggy (1976)
Happy Early Voting Opening Day. Time to wake up and follow your voting plan — for those of you voting.
This is the third of my pre-election series. For those of you who need a reminder:
I analyzed the third candidate in this two horse race and how decisions surrounding his campaign might have great implications.
I reminded you to be critical as you separate facts from noise.
There is going to be a lot of data released between now and election day. Here are tips to sound your smartest when talking election over the next week:
Consider media or university sponsored polls. Any poll which is conducted by a candidate, a close ally, or a close ally group is worth ignoring.
Ignore early voting exit polling. This is not a knock on exit polling. Rather, most media outlets will not release poll influencing exit polls until after voting closes. If poll data has been released, you likely will not trust the data’s source.
Consider the undecided vote in the polls. At this point in 2021, there were undecided rates of <10%. This year we are still seeing >10%. The more undecided voters, the higher the chance of chaos in the results.
Ignore early voting totals. Early voting tallies can be an indicator of how an election will turn out, but we usually don’t know how until after the election. There are many reasons why a voter votes early. Without hindsight, it is near impossible to pinpoint the causal reasons. Somehow both low or high early vote tallies will favor your candidate (i.e. confirmation bias). Most people still vote on election day, so its not worth getting worked up over early voting totals.
Consider betting markets. I use betting markets to see if there are drastic movements in the line. If I see a large drop or gain, I google news search that candidate to find the cause. It only takes one piece of information to change the line, so a cause should be easy to find. If the cause of the market change does not feel like a big deal, then it’s alright to assume bettors are overreacting. You have your own internal MayorModel.
Ignore straw polling. There is less scientific rigor when it comes to reporting a straw poll than an exit poll. Swipe left on these.
Ignore any data from a candidate’s camp. Every candidate on election day conveniently leaks that there have been lots of positive surprises in turnout. Remember in 2016 when there was early data from Clinton’s camp that, given the early success, Georgia was in play?
Consider 2xParked. I will do my best to keep you posted as data rolls in.
