Dear Staten Island Chuck,
In an hour, you will be looking out at your shadow to determine the fate of our winter. I will burrow until spring regardless. Do your powers extend to predicting when the vaccine will be distributed to New Yorkers?
I recently questioned the extent of your prognostication “powers”. Last week, I looked at data that painted a picture of a warming city. Nearly every year you predict an “early spring”, a majority of days between now and March 20 above 40 degrees. If you look at the data, you are making some real hot takes.
It is likely your “powers” will become obsolete, so what is next for you? There is a vacancy in the mayor’s office if you decide to run. Everyone else has already applied. If not, hopefully the next mayor will treat you better.
Give my best to the family, and I hope you enjoy Super Bowl Sunday. I will miss your wild vegetation dip this year.
Best,
2xParked
Super Bowl “Party”
People, please do not have Zoom Super Bowl parties. No one wants that. Enjoy a quiet Super Bowl viewing experience with your quarenteam. Make some yummy food and enjoy a game between football legends. The top 5 google searched foods by New Yorkers from last year’s Super Bowl are delicious, and 2xParked endorses them all for this year’s low-key festivities:
Pizza
Guacamole
Chicken Wings
Nachos
Chili
Additionally, many of you might be playing Super Bowl Squares with friends or work colleagues. Although it may seem random, and it mostly is, this fun party football betting game still has a bit of strategy. If you have the opportunity to choose your square, here is a quick guide from 2xParked using the last 10 years of football games. This shows the probability of winning based on your pick.
Some strategies to increase your odds of winning: (1) avoid 2, 5, and 9, and (2) choose a combination of 0, 3, 4, or 7.
Betting the Season Away
We are lucky to host two football teams (sort of) in the city. I had performed an exercise after the baseball season to investigate would have happened if you bet on the Mets or Yankees to win, so I replicated that analysis to the NFL using money lines from oddsshark. Football gambling is a $150M industry, so how would you have done if you had bet $100 (with no transaction fees) on the Giants or Jets every game? Below is the net win-loss accumulated each week.
The assumption is that the betting lines are created with an expected profit of $0. Even though the Jets and Giants were terrible this year, their miniscule combined 8 wins overcompensated with large payouts. The largest payouts were the Giants victory over the Seahawks (+$485) and the Jets victory over the Rams (+$957).
New York’s Pick
Now that the 2020 election is over, the polls are cornered on favorability. Favorability is commonly defined as the % of people who approve minus the % of people who disapprove. On a national level, Joe Biden’s first two weeks have already been tracked.
I decided to use this measure as a basis see how New Yorkers feel about the two teams in the Super Bowl: Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The Chiefs are barely the New York City favorite this year, especially when compared to the last decade of Super Bowls, likely due to low city passion directed at either team.
MayorModel
I am making some calibrations to the model, which will be updated next week! Stay tuned!
In the meantime, I wanted to see how popular our two football teams were in comparison to our mayor. From Google Search trends data, it was not even close.
Even in a year where it felt like everyone was developing political opinions, the mayor’s office still can’t score a touchdown on the Jets defense.
"Super Bowl" was drawn by Ink&thyme, drawing life's unforgettable moments. For unique art drawn just for you, check them out on Facebook and on Instagram.
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Comments? Suggestions? Questions? Email me at 2xParked@gmail.com.