Weather or Not
2xParked 1.13
There was a chance this week’s 2xParked was going to be released from a newly purchased beachfront mansion after three attempts to win nearly a billion dollars in the lotto. The statistics side of my brain told me that I had a 0.000001% chance of that happening. We all know what Wayne Gretzky says about taking shots, but in practical terms, this is 0%, nothing, no chance, nada. Instead I find myself bunkered down in whatever warmth I can find in my New York apartment.
Remember pre-Covid times when we, New Yorkers, used to take elevators at work? Remember that time someone you sort of knew walked in, and although you wanted to pretend not to notice, you had to say something? If it was a Monday or Friday, you had the easy topic of “the weekend.” Tuesday through Thursday, you likely mentioned weather
According to a study from 2018, Brits spend more than 4 months of their lives talking about weather. My guess is that New Yorkers are not far off this tally.
Weather does not have to be the most boring default conversation. Today’s topic is the weather because this is what 2xParked wants to talk about.
Climate Change
According to a 2016 Yale study, New Yorkers believe that climate change is real. Here are some data points from this study from the New York Metro area:
76% believe global warming is happening.
59% believe global warming is caused by human activities.
68% are worried about global warming.
46% believe global warming will impact them personally.
38% of the people talk about global warming occasionally, but not always correctly. Often after an extreme weather event, such as a really hot day or a storm, some smart aleck will shout “global warming, am I right?”
No. We have had hot days before, and we have had wild storms. It is difficult to notice global warming on a day-to-day basis. If we did, we would be in more serious trouble. Rather, it is the long term trend of more hot days and more storms that is worrisome.
Below we see the high daily temperatures in our local area (gathered from NOAA data at the Westchester airport) starting in 1960. In this mess of a scatter plot, there is a trend line, which is also admittedly difficult to read.
It might be more useful to take a look on a month-by-month basis. Below is the difference in average high temperature between months in the 1960s vs the 2010s.
The temperatures rising the highest happened in the months we expect to be the coldest. Let’s examine February since it is knocking on our doors.
It is absolutely wild (and obvious) to see this increase in high temperature during this 60 year period.
Day-to-Day Impact Example
There are plenty of things to worry about with the potential of global warming. This includes rising sea levels, species dying, and more extreme weather events. If you have not Googled the grim outlook, it is worth your time. Instead, I want to focus on our day-to-day outlook as New Yorkers.
2xParked has created a model which optimizes what clothes you need to wear in a given day based on weather data. (When you are not sure what to wear, check out our recommendations on Twitter). The essentials of the model are based on three facts:
Our bodies are on average 98.6 degrees.
Legally, we are not allowed to roam the streets naked. We have to wear clothes.
We optimally want to keep the temperature that our body feels at 68-72 degrees. Not coincidentally, this is also what we refer to as “room temperature”.
For each layer of clothing, you are creating a new level of insulation to warm your body. For example, it is often recommended to start wearing your heavy winter coat when it feels less than 25 degrees. Remember, “feels like” includes the wind chill.
If we think back at the increase in winter temperatures (such as what we saw in February), we see, above, the likelihood of needing a winter coat in winter has decreased dramatically over this 60 year period. This means every three years, you have been expected to wear your winter jacket 1 less day.
This is significant. Given an expected 3-5 seasons of coat wear, this 1-2 additional days could be the difference of extending an extra season for some. That extrapolates to about $1-2M decrease in winter coat spending from NYC. (Now imagine how the whole $270B United States winter apparel industry is impacted).
Whether or not you are one of the 59% of the NYC population who believe that humans are causing global warming, the warming is happening. It will continue to impact our lives big and small, from the weather to the economy.
MayorModel
Ben Max, of Gotham Gazette, reported initial poll results paid by the Yang campaign this past week.
Look at the bottom line: 32% undecided. This should not come as a surprise. Here are the poll results from Quinnipiac during the 2013 primary election.
We were still at 25% undecided in mid-July, two months before the primary. What happened next: 1) Anthony Weiner fell, 2) Bill De Blasio rose, and 3) the undecided vote began to decide. The current picture might not clear up until April. In the meantime, here is where we stand:
"Winter Time" was drawn by Ink&thyme, drawing life's unforgettable moments. For unique art drawn just for you, check them out on Facebook and on Instagram.
To subscribe to future newsletters, click here.
For more content, follow 2xParked on Twitter @2xParked.
Comments? Suggestions? Questions? Email me at 2xParked@gmail.com.