2xParked 4.7
Be Smarter than a 5th Grader
In fifth grade, I ran for homeroom president on three platforms: (1) less homework, (2) longer recess, and (3) better snacks.
Sadly, the fifth-grade voting bloc saw through my populist campaign. My opponent won on a “let's be nicer to everyone” ticket, which is a visionary, ambitious, and attainable slate.1
As we enter the 2025 general election campaign season, it is easier than ever for politicians to reinforce your existing beliefs. For democracy to work well, though, it requires the voter to be independent and thoughtful in discerning between vision and vibe. That can be difficult.
All politicians are saying they will make life more affordable with the swing of a magic wand. They are laying out their macroeconomic playbooks – from global tariffs to free bus rides – but they are only telling you the benefits, not the costs. There are always substantial costs.
We voters are the ultimate arbiters of which candidate will positively impact our city's macro-, micro-, and socioeconomic policies. Most Americans have never taken an economics course, and it shows. According to a November 2024 study in the Journal of Monetary Economics, only 13% of those surveyed have a good understanding of inflation and its causes, costs, and benefits2. Statistically speaking, you are likely not one of those 13%. It might be time to reopen or purchase a macroeconomic textbook.
The stakes are no longer better snacks3 as we begin our first competitive general mayoral election since 2009 when Bloomberg won his third term by 4.4 points4. According to Polymarket, Mamdani is the front-runner with an implied 73% chance of winning. This is big but not insurmountable for the other candidates.
Interestingly, this number has not changed since Mamdani won the primary. There are a significant number of voters who are less likely to favor Mamdani but who were not accounted for in the primaries. Although there have been many polls, this lack of movement in the line indicates these polls do not carry additional useful information, yet, on whether this group might impact the election.
As more polls are released, here are the data points I will be monitoring this summer:
Dust Settle Principle: As I have stated many times, polling in a tight election lacks useful information until the "I don't know" bloc decides how — or if — they are voting. In recent polls, the undecided rate is 10-20%, so decisions are pending and poll usefulness is low.
Sliwa Polling: The GOP primary winner is polling at around 20%. In a normal NYC general election, we can expect a Republican candidate to get 30% of the vote. If he continues to poll less than 30%, where is that other vote going?
Paths to Victory: Game theory is brought to life as we analyze Adams and Cuomo. Although both candidates aim to attract the moderate and independent votes, Adams is a more attractive candidate for liberal Republicans while Cuomo is for moderate-liberal Democrats. For one candidate to win, the other has to drop out. How much will ego compete with wanting to defeat Mamdani?
Donald Trump “Endorsement”: Earlier this month, Trump gave apparent support for Adams, but that goodwill has been damaged with the most recent lawsuit. How does this roller coaster of a relationship correlate with Adams receiving GOP voter support?
Youth Voting: Mamdani’s populist messaging excited the youth vote to register and vote for the Democratic primary. Some of the polling cross tabs might help us understand how many of these voters were incremental (i.e. would not have voted vs would have voted as “independents” in November) and what the ceiling is for his youth support.
Mamdani is the leader of the pack, but if anyone says “it’s over” at this point, they either know something you do not know or they are not nuanced probabilistic thinkers like you. A lot can happen in the next three months. Three months prior to June's primary, Cuomo was at 70% according to Polymarket. Three months prior to the November election, Harris and Trump were seen as tied. It is still close enough for endorsements, scandals, and macroeconomics to throw a wrench in the numbers.
2xParked will keep you informed on how things stand, but it is up to you to inform yourself on how things should stand. Even if you feel like others are not doing the homework, you should still aim to be smarter than a fifth grader.
It is still a potentially needed platform for grownups today.
Yes, there are benefits of inflation.
Unless we all get gummy worms.
Although polling was never really close.
Great analysis Adam