Over 15,000 screaming fans packed Madison Square Garden on Sunday to watch the Knicks lose their first playoff game in a long time. This comes after nearly two months of “full” capacity attendance for every Mets and Yankees home game. NYC is hungry for live events.
Fall will be even more exciting with the return of Broadway!
This week, 2xParked is looking at the future of the theater district.
Coming to a Theater Near You
If there was any worry that Broadway will not do well on its return, 2xParked can squash that notion. Using past Broadway data sales, macroeconomic factors, and current capacity trends from sporting events post-vaccine, we projected the first year of Broadway ticket sales.
This equates to about $1.6B in revenue the first year. This is not far off from the $1.7B in 2019 and $1.8B in 2018. Let the show go on!
Finally Going to Get Your Shot
I know I am one of the millions who thought he was so clever by comparing the hit Hamilton song to a vaccine jab. (I still think I am clever for it).
Even prior to Covid, we saw the average ticket price for the blockbuster start to trend downward after reaching about $300/ticket for most of 2018 and 2019. In the first 8 weeks of 2020, ticket prices were down 13% year-over-year.
A lot of this is due to saturation in the market. It had been in theaters for over 4 years at that point and it had started to do national tours. Now with the release of the filmed version on Disney+ and the fact tourism will take time to recover, we will likely never see that $300/ticket again.
I took a look at November, and there are ample available seats at $149. If you want to be in the room where it happens, there might not be a better time to take your shot.
In the Heights
On June 11, In the Heights, the latest Broadway adaptation to the big screen (or streaming screen) will be released nearly a year after originally planned. Although I have never personally seen this Tony Award winning show, the synopsis could not sound any more New York City.
Set in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Manhattan, In the Heights tells the story of a young store owner who watches the joys and heartbreaks of his tight-knit community as they pass through his bodega.
Expectations will be high! … maybe.
Although In the Heights won a Tony Award for best musical, its 81% theater capacity during its run is the second lowest of the 10 modern (after 1985) Broadway-to-Film productions. (I am not including Hamilton since it is a filmed stage production of the Broadway play). This might suggest a discrepancy between critical and audience reception.
Additionally, with a small budget of $55M, it is also setting itself up for a more niche audience, of which only 50% of movies have had a Rotten Tomatoes audience score >70%.
Of course, the toughest obstacle to measure expectation will be the inevitable comparisons to Hamilton. Lin-Manuel Miranda’s name will likely broaden the appeal.
Early reviews (98% Fresh) indicate this will be a good one. Regardless if you are a musical fan or not, we are all in need of a good movie.
MayorModel
To quote Fiddler on the Roof, “the Rabbi who must praise himself has a congregation of one”.
Last week after the NY Times endorsement of Kathryn Garcia, I suggested this will be the spark to giver her a deBlasian slingshot to the top. The new WPIX/Emerson Poll indicates that just happened.
It looks like a lot of the support from Stringer and the undecided were directed towards Garcia this week. In 2013, something similar happened right after the Anthony Weiner scandal, where Weiner’s support declined, undecided voters were decided, and de Blasio sky rocketed to the top.
This does not mean Garcia is the front runner yet. My model suggests that Yang and Adams are still the favorites, but Garcia has moved to the upper tier. With a month left, there is still a lot to be decided.
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