With NYC opening and going mask-less, New Yorkers are dealing with two new obstacles while walking on the sunny streets.
First, without facial barricades, our sidewalks are filled with sneezing and itchy eyes due to a strategically timed attack by pollen. Gesundheit.
Second, is it time to (finally) party like it is 2013? In the past week, I personally have run into two candidates running for mayor. Better late than never, this ability and openness to personally engage with voters might be the catalyst needed to transition voters from undecided to decided.
We are about a month away from primary day, which, given the NYC party breakdown, will likely determine the fate of our city’s next four years. This week, 2xParked will let you know where we stand in many of the competitive city races.
ComptrollerModel
Last week, I broke down the NYC Comptroller race, and this week I present a ComptrollerModel. Admittedly, this model is not as strong as the MayorModel, but many of the same indicating factors, such as social media trends and public relations strength, are predictive. There is clearly less attention to this race (ex. Andrew Yang has received about 20x more Google searches than the front runner, Corey Johnson) which means it is a bit more difficult to accurately predict who will choose who.
What this model does provide is a directional indication where the candidates presently stand. Johnson looks like the clear front runner, which is no surprise given his decent polling numbers and city-wide recognition.
What this model does not do well is indicate who the winner will most likely be. Although Johnson is leading with a 36% chance, this means he should not be crowned a winner today. Rather, it means there is still a 64% chance he will not be comptroller. He is only the favorite right now.
PublicAdvocateModel
We didn’t really need a model to predict this, but…
PresidentModel
No, I am not competing with Nate Silver. This is to predict Borough President, not POTUS, which Wikipedia says some people call the “Beep”.
The Borough President is another title where New Yorkers may not really be sure what it is. It is similar to the Public Advocate role. There really is not a whole lot of power besides having institutional connections with the Mayor, City Council, and other city offices as an advocate for the borough.
This year, there are many competitive races, and we will break down the ones most likely to be won on primary day (i.e. not Staten Island).
As Eric Adams runs for mayor, his successor in Brooklyn will likely be chosen this June. Antonio Reynoso and Jo Anne Simon seem to be the leaders, but like with Comptroller, this race is incredibly tight.
Ruben Diaz Jr., another long standing Borough President, will be termed out this year. This race is wide-open with City Councilwoman Vanessa Gibson as the (very very very I can’t emphasize how very) slight front-runner based on my model.
With Gale Brewer trying to regain her post in City Council, the race for Manhattan Borough has become a two-person race between Mark Levine and Brad Hoylman. Levine has had a strong social media influence during Covid (it was his “breaking” Tweet on new vaccine appointments opening which helped me sign up for my parents). Meanwhile, Lindsey Boylan is surprisingly a distant third. It may not be surprising given the actual standing of the politicians in this race, but the model I use highly prioritizes things like PR and Social Media mentions, and I would have thought she would have fared better given this model’s weakness and her claims against the governor.
Finally the most competitive and high-profile of the races is happening in our largest borough. Donovan Richards, the incumbent, is the favorite, but given he just entered the post, he is not an entrenched incumbent.
MayorModel
Given the high “undecided” polling numbers over the past 6 months, it was long overdue for this race to take centerstage. Over the past week, here are the highlights:
Biggest Endorsement: I do not think there is a bigger endorsement than the NY Times giving the thumbs up to Kathryn Garcia. This actually could influence voters. Many of the other endorsements thrown around have either been preaching to the choir or inconsequential (e.g. “who is that politician endorsing?”). Even if AOC were to endorse a candidate, unless it was surprisingly not Wiley or Morales, it would likely be more along the lines of “preaching to the choir”.
Debate: Although the debate was likely sparsely watched, it was important because those who did watch (i.e. the local media) are the one shaping the narrative. This bodes well for the front runners, Yang and Adams. With so many candidates and a limited time, there really were not many splashes. If there was a “winner”, it was slightly Wiley. She was able to use her MSNBC savviness for a bit more airtime compared to the other candidates.
Polling: Most importantly, the highest quality poll yet has been released by WPIX/Emerson. Among the takeaways: (1) Adams has taken the lead, (2) they took into account RCV and have Adams leading Yang in the end, (3) Garcia has risen and could take a DeBlasian sling shot to first before its all over, and (4) Stringers numbers have not been hurt.
From this poll, I want to address the lack of RCV impact for most of the candidates. The reality is that RCV will only make a difference if the votes are extremely close at the top or a candidate is divisive. There is a really good chance race will be close at the top (another recent poll has Yang leading first ranked votes). Given this closeness, the best strategy for someone not in the top two like Garcia or Stringer or Wiley is to try and steal votes from Adams and Yang. The second ranked votes of Adams and Yang are projected not to be used.
Here are the model predictions after all of this has been accounted for:
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